Morgan Stanley sets benchmark Sensex target of 74,000 by December 2024- QHN

Morgan Stanley has set a December 2024 target of 74,000 for the benchmark Sensex. This implies an upside of 12 per cent from the current level. “This level suggests that the BSE Sen­sex will trade at a trailing P/E multiple of 24.7x, ahead of the 25-year average of 20x. The premium over the historical average reflects greater confidence in the medium-term growth cycle in India,” the brokerage said in its ‘2024 India Equity Strategy Outlook’ note. Morgan Stanley has a ‘bull case’ target of 86,000, which is contingent on a dip in oil prices to $70 a barrel and deep rate cuts from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). It also has a ‘bear case’ target of 51,000, with risks such as elections delivering an unclear mandate with a change in government, oil prices surging past $110/barrel, the RBI tightening to protect macro stability and a US recession leads global growth lower. 
 

“With strong earnings, macro stability and domestic flows, it is hard to argue against India’s investment case. That said, an event-heavy calendar with potential binary outcomes sets the market up for volatility, after having been less volatile than ever,” strategists Ridham Desai, Sheela Rathi and Nayant Parekh wrote in a note.