Stock price of this PSU company has nearly doubled thus far in November- QHN

Shares of railway infrastructure company Rail Vikas Nigam (RVNL) hit a new high of Rs 79.70, as they rallied 9 per cent on the BSE in Monday’s intra-day trade on healthy business outlook. Thus far, in the month of November, the stock price of public sector undertaking (PSU) company has been nearly doubled or zoomed 99 per cent from a level Rs 40, as compared to 2.7 per cent rise in the S&P BSE Sensex.

RVNL, it’s subsidiary and joint ventures are engaged in the business of implementing various types of rail infrastructure projects assigned by Ministry of Railway (MoR) including doubling (including 3rd/4th lines), gauge conversion, new lines, railway electrification, major bridges, workshops, production units and sharing of freight revenue with railways as per the concession agreement entered into with MoR.

RVNL’s major client is the Indian Railways and other clients include various central and state government ministries, departments, and public sector undertakings. RVNL has also started participating in Metro, Highways and other infrastructure sectors through competitive bidding.

In past one month, RVNL has announced securing multiple orders. On November 11, RVNL announced that the company has been declared successful bidder in an International project in Maldives named as Development of UTF (Uthuru Thila Falhu- Island) Harbour. This is a strategic project of Government of India and the estimated project cost is approximately Rs 1,544.60 crore.

Earlier on November 4, the company said that it was awarded a contract worth of Rs 137.55 crore for increasing speed potential to 160 KMPH in Pradhankhanta – Bandhua section of Dhanbad Division under East Central Railway.

Meanwhile, since October, the stock price of RVNL has zoomed 136 per cent after the rating agency CARE Ratings assigned CARE AAA for its issuer rating with stable outlook.

The issuer rating assigned to RVNL takes into account its positioning as one of the largest infrastructure capital expenditure vehicles of Government of India (GoI) signifying its managerial and financial linkages with GoI along with 78.20 per cent ownership. The rating also derives strength from RVNL’s significant execution capabilities in the railway segment and its strong orderbook position as on July 31, 2022 with more than 95 per cent of the projects from the Ministry of Railways (MoR) on a nomination basis having a cost-plus margin structure, CARE Ratings said in a rating rationale.

While domestic railway projects are now being tendered through MoR’s new competitive bidding system, the revenue visibility is strong for about three years. RVNL has started bidding in open market apart from bidding in domestic and international projects through joint ventures to further scale up of its operations. RVNL plans to leverage on its project management skills and sound technical qualifications to secure projects in era of discontinuation of nomination policy from MoR, the rating agency said. CLICK HERE FOR FULL DETAILS

Technical View

Bias: Positive

Target: Rs 85.25; Rs 87.75; Rs 98.35

Support: Rs 73.50; Rs 60

The sharp rally at the counter this November has placed the stock in the overbought zone, both on the daily and the weekly charts.

While the trend looks bullish on the charts, one should look at entry points closer to the support levels with strict stop loss. As any reversal at higher levels, could trigger a sharp price correction at the counter.

For now, the bias is likely to remain positive as long as the stock sustains above Rs 73.50, indicates the weekly chart. Similarly, the major support for the stock on the monthly chart is placed near Rs 60-odd level.

As per the monthly Fibonacci chart, the stock could scale to Rs 85.25 – Rs 87.75 – Rs 98.35 on the upside owing to the current momentum.

(With inputs from Rex Cano)